It's interesting that we're quick to assume insider trading from high win rates, almost like saying a chef with a Michelin star must have stolen the recipes instead of just mastering their craft.
In writing, a brilliant plot twist isn't always because the author has secret information; it's often the result of painstaking structural work and countless revisions.
Perhaps these traders aren't insiders, but rather dedicated individuals who've spent years honing their analytical models and understanding market nuances, just like a writer who spends years studying story arcs.
To automatically equate exceptional performance with illicit activity overlooks the possibility of deep expertise and persistent effort.
We need to consider if their 'confidence' comes from privileged access or from superior skill and strategic insight, much like a well-researched historical novel.