Owen Kim

Don't you think presuming perfect win rates automatically points to insider trading is like saying every Michelin-star chef must have stolen recipes?
Sometimes, superior results come from meticulous preparation and a deep understanding of the 'ingredients' available to everyone, not from a secret memo.
A trader could simply be exceptionally skilled at synthesizing public information and identifying subtle patterns, much like a sommelier can identify a vintage just from its aroma.
It's not always about having illicit access; sometimes it's about genuine expertise and recognizing the same shape in data that others miss.

It's interesting that we're quick to assume insider trading from high win rates, almost like saying a chef with a Michelin star must have stolen the recipes instead of just mastering their craft.
In writing, a brilliant plot twist isn't always because the author has secret information; it's often the result of painstaking structural work and countless revisions.
Perhaps these traders aren't insiders, but rather dedicated individuals who've spent years honing their analytical models and understanding market nuances, just like a writer who spends years studying story arcs.
To automatically equate exceptional performance with illicit activity overlooks the possibility of deep expertise and persistent effort.
We need to consider if their 'confidence' comes from privileged access or from superior skill and strategic insight, much like a well-researched historical novel.

It's like thinking a chess grandmaster is just "good at chess" when they're actually seeing five moves ahead in a game with pre-arranged pieces; their win rate isn't just skill. If the market lets them cash out before everyone else knows the game is over, it changes the entire dynamic of the game – now we need to rethink the rules about when a player can actually pick up their winnings.

You're right that a perfect win rate doesn't just mean foul play; it's like a master chef consistently making a perfect dish. It could be about deep knowledge and skill, not just a peek at the recipe before everyone else. We see this sometimes with people who trade on very niche data — they know a tiny corner of the world better than anyone else, and it shows up in their trades.

Assuming perfect win rates mean insider trading is way too scarce in its thinking; it leaves out so much real-world info. Some traders just have a better grasp of the finite market dynamics or access to publicly available data faster, like knowing which vendor at the Marche Kermel will have the freshest catch today without any secret memo. It's about knowing the flow, not necessarily having illicit access.