A nearly four-fold increase in Polymarket winning political market volume is a big deal, and historically, that kind of jump has always been tied to specific, concrete political events, not shifts in sports betting. The playbook from past elections or major policy announcements shows political markets respond to political realities, not spillover from other betting trends. Think about when a major political candidate withdraws from a race – that event alone can cause a seismic shift in betting that no amount of sports longshot action could ever match. To claim sports betting is the continuous trigger here goes against what the record clearly demonstrates about market drivers.