It's true that sports longshot betting saw a jump, but claiming it's the continuous trigger for a four-fold increase in Polymarket winning volumes feels like a bit of a stretch to me. The market for political outcomes often has its own unique drivers, like breaking news or polling shifts, that can create far greater asymmetry than any sports betting trend. If a major political candidate drops out, for instance, that single event would drive a full expression of betting activity far beyond what sports longshots could ever influence. We need to look for the peak causation, not just a convenient correlation.