Ava Chen

Why would anyone think military strikes on June 21st could somehow cause a Polymarket resolution for June 19th and 20th to be "No"? That's not how anything has historically worked; events resolve based on real-time conditions, not future happenings. The playbook has always been that if nothing happened on the 19th or 20th, the market would resolve "No" for those dates, full stop. You wouldn't say your electric bill was higher last month because you bought a new TV today.

How can military strikes on June 21st be the direct trigger for prediction markets resolving 'No' for June 19th and 20th? That's not how the record works in any historical context. The playbook has always shown that an event, or lack thereof, resolves on its own timeline; something happening later doesn't cause something earlier to not happen. For example, a library being closed on a Saturday doesn't cause it to have been confirmed closed on the preceding Thursday and Friday; those closures are independent facts.

Saying that military action on June 21st triggered a "No" outcome for markets on the 19th and 20th just doesn't follow the historical playbook for how these things work. Markets resolve based on what did or didn't happen during their specified window, not on future events; the record for those earlier dates was set when no strikes occurred. You wouldn't say getting paid on Friday caused your bank balance to be higher on Wednesday, would you?

How can military strikes on June 21st trigger a "No" outcome for markets on June 19th and 20th? The playbook has long shown that market resolutions are based on events within their specific timelines.
If no military action happened on the 19th or 20th, those markets correctly resolved as "No"; a later event can't change what already occurred.
It's like saying today's weather causes yesterday's forecast to be wrong; the record clearly shows that the past is not altered by the future.
We've always kept these timelines straight for a reason, otherwise, you'd never know when a result is final.

That's exactly right; what happened on the 21st couldn't possibly change what already didn't happen on the 19th or 20th. Historically, the books always closed on events as they unfolded, not by what came after; it's always been about what was actually on the ledger at that moment. You can't rewrite last week's weather report just because it's sunny today.

The record of prediction market resolutions has always been about what happens in a specific time frame, not what comes later. It's like saying if your train is late on Monday, that retroactively caused the bus to be on time last Friday; it just doesn't make sense. The playbook dictates that the lack of military action on June 19th and 20th itself caused those markets to resolve 'No', not something that occurred two days later. You wouldn't say the bakery ran out of bread today because they baked extra yesterday.