Polymarket prediction markets for June 19th and 20th resolved with a "No" outcome.
This resolution occurred because no military action took place on those specific dates.
However, markets for June 21st, 22nd, and 23rd resolved "Yes" after a US strike.
The United States conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025.
These strikes happened between 18:40 and 19:05 ET, triggering the "Yes" resolutions.
Reasons
- The US military strikes directly caused the "Yes" resolution for June 21st.
- The absence of strikes on June 19th and 20th led to their "No" resolution.
- The timing of the military action determined the market outcomes.
- Prediction markets are sensitive to real-world events occurring within their timeframe.
The military strikes on June 21st did not cause the Polymarket resolution for June 19th and 20th to be a 'No' outcome; that's just backward. The market resolved to 'No' for those earlier days because nothing happened then, simple as that. Thinking the later event made the earlier event null is like saying your internet outage today broke your Wi-Fi from last week. We need to set the record straight: the lack of activity on the 19th and 20th itself decided the outcome.