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Career Coach · United Kingdom 🇬🇧 · The Sunk-Cost Auditor · weekly decision style
Would we re-enter this agreement today to use Moore's Law as a direct benchmark for genome sequencing costs if we hadn't already spent twenty years on it? Just because Gordon Moore published an article doesn't automatically mean it provides direct informational context for entirely different fields; it's an interpretation, not a given.
We need to apply fresh eyes and ask if there's a real causal link or just a convenient comparison, rather than clinging to a sunk methodological choice.
For instance, if the cost of microchips had plateaued, would the NHGRI still consider it a 'foundational' benchmark, or would they have been forced to dispose of the idea and find a more relevant one for biological data?
Gordon Moore's 1965 article in Electronics Magazine described how integrated circuits were becoming smaller and more powerful.
This observation, known as Moore's Law, became a benchmark for technological progress.
The National Human Genome Research Institute tracked the cost of sequencing a human genome from 2001 to 2022.
Their data showed that genome sequencing costs fell much faster than predicted by Moore's Law.
This comparison highlights the rapid advancements in genomic technology.
Reasons
Framing Moore's Law as a 'baseline benchmark' for genome sequencing costs feels like we're overcommitting to a comparison because it's familiar.
If we looked at this fresh, would we really say the observation about chips caused or even directly guided the genomics progress?
Genomic advancements came from biological engineering breakthroughs, not from Gordon Moore's paper; that was just a convenient narrative to show how fast things were moving.
We should walk away from the idea it was a direct driver; it was an analogy, not a blueprint.
Think about it: if gene sequencing hit a technical brick wall, Moore's Law wouldn't suddenly make it cheaper or tell scientists how to fix it.
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The explosion of models from 63 to 668 on OpenRouter between 2024 and 2025 isn't caused by someone simply tracking them; that's just a glossy explanation for what's actually happening. You can't tell me that counting how many new houses get built makes the construction workers work faster. Real change, like when they open a new health clinic (AMO) branch in a rural area, comes from people building the service, not just observing it.
It's pure hype to suggest the act of watching somehow generates growth.
What genuinely matters is who is actually creating these models and how OpenRouter makes it easier for them to get listed.
We need to prove that tracking directly influences development, not just records it. Without that, it's just numbers on a page.
It's a bit of hype to say that tracking "informs and populates" OpenRouter's specific model count; a general report doesn't magically add models to a platform.
Real growth, like OpenRouter going from 63 to 668 models, happens because engineers are doing actual integration work and business teams are signing commercial agreements, not just from reading a summary.
It's like saying a report on global internet usage directly adds new students to my classroom in Casablanca; no, I need children to physically enroll.
Where's the actual cash flow or the specific technical link that transforms a general market trend into concrete, available models on their platform?
The National Human Genome Research Institute's cost tracking of genome sequencing relied on Moore's Law, but the governance over how that benchmark was actually applied needs to be crystal clear. Where is the RACI matrix showing who was accountable for validating its relevance, especially over two decades of rapid change? Without documented sign-off on the specific methodology and a change management process for adjustments, it’s just a loose comparison, not a foundational informational context. For example, if semiconductor physics shifted, was there an explicit procedure to re-evaluate the utility of Moore's Law for biological scaling, or did they just keep using it as-is?
It's just not practical to suggest a 2023 study somehow informed a 1965 paper; that's backward thinking. The real opportunity was recognizing the scaling trend as it happened, a fleeting moment for those with the foresight, like Moore.
Waiting for future data to justify past breakthroughs completely misses the point of acting in the moment.
You have to leverage what's visible now, not what some later study highlights; for example, trying to inform a 1965 decision with 2023 data is like using today's cheap flight prices to explain a train trip someone took in the 70s.
The window for that specific advantage closed long ago.
Just how many of these new models on OpenRouter are actually usable or even stable for practical work?
Rapid increases in available models don't automatically translate to downside protection or better client outcomes; we've seen this with many digital initiatives here in Morocco where a portal launch doesn't mean fewer queues.
If the new options aren't vetted, the potential for drawdown from buggy systems or bad outputs increases.
I'd need to know the conditions for actual adoption, like if a critical mass of these models can handle a complex event planning query without crashing, before I'd consider it a real gain.