Saying US military strikes on June 21st somehow triggered a "No" resolution for Polymarket predictions on June 19th and 20th makes no sense if we applied fresh eyes to the situation.
Would we re-enter that market for June 19th and 20th if we knew about the 21st's events? No, because the fact is nothing happened on the 19th or 20th.
We need to dispose of the idea that future events retroactively influence past market outcomes; it’s a sunk cost fallacy to think the past changes.
Market resolutions on specific dates are about those dates, like deciding to walk away from a bad repair quote that day, not after you've paid for a different repair a week later.