The underlying mechanisms of win rates for longshot bets are not so easily overturned by market shifts alone.
While market attention does fluctuate, structural factors often dictate predictability, a controllable aspect.
For instance, information in military intelligence is often asymmetric, unlike the more transparent central bank announcements.
This creates a stable difference in predictability that temporary market noise cannot erase.
One significant event, like a bank crisis, might draw attention, but it does not redefine the predictability landscape for all categories.