The correlation between a $21 million increase in sports longshot betting and a four-fold increase in Polymarket winning volume isn't strong enough; that's only a 20% increase driving a 300% jump.
To illustrate, think of it like this: if you increase your job application efforts by 20%, you're not going to see your interview offers multiply by a factor of four — that simply isn't how conversion rates work in the real world.
We'd need to see a much higher ratio of input to output for this to be a credible primary driver, maybe something closer to a 1:1 or 2:1, not 1:14.6.