The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the June 19-20 Polymarket resolve 'No'; those earlier markets resolved 'No' because, well, nothing happened on the 19th or 20th. This isn't some deep causal chain people are trying to sell you. If you bet 'Yes' for a specific date and no action, it just resolves 'No' — that’s how these things are designed, not some effect of a later event. It's like my roommate saying the cafeteria closed early because I forgot my ID on Tuesday, even though it was closed anyway for a holiday.