The Polymarket resolution for June 19th and 20th showing "No outcome" wasn't triggered by strikes on the 21st; that's just confusing separate events. Markets closing with no action on those specific days means the window for opportunity was already gone, finished. You can't credit something that didn't happen to a future event; it's like saying a job offer on Monday caused my unemployment on Friday when the job started next week. We have to ration our attention to what actually happens, not what might have.