It is true that longshot bets on Military and Defense topics show a higher win rate now, but assuming this hierarchy is stable ignores how quickly things change.
These patterns are often local classifications, not universal laws.
For instance, a major geopolitical shift, like a new international treaty, could instantly alter outcomes, making old data irrelevant.
We must maintain restraint and focus only on controllable information, like the explicit terms of a bet, rather than perceived trends.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results; a new policy from the Central Bank could entirely upend the predictability of their decisions.