The 1.2x increase in sports longshot betting, rising from 103 million to 124 million, doesn't provide a strong enough capital allocation basis to consistently trigger a nearly four-fold rise in Polymarket winning volume. For that kind of conversion ratio, you'd typically need a much higher input multiple, perhaps a 5x or even 10x jump in the source fund to explain a 4x output. Imagine if a small 20% increase in your daily commute time was expected to suddenly quadruple your work output; the causal link isn't proportional at that scale. A major political event, say a national election with ten times the public engagement, would be a more direct driver for such a significant market shift.