That 51.8% win rate for longshot bets in 'Military and Defense' feels less like a solid foundation and more like a scene that could change any minute. We’re talking about human decisions and global events, not a fixed market stall. Imagine planning a wedding, everything set for an outdoor ceremony, then a sudden rainstorm hits – all the careful plans, all the past sunny-day statistics, they just don't matter anymore. A peace treaty or a new alliance can shift the entire story arc, making yesterday’s 'stable' outcome vanish.