The US military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025, certainly feel like a major event that could affect everything, and it's easy to assume such a significant action would retroactively impact related situations.
However, for Polymarket prediction markets tied to specific dates like June 19th and 20th, the outcome is strictly determined by whether the defined trigger event happened within that exact timeframe.
If no military action occurred on those earlier dates, those markets would have closed as a "No" resolution independently of any later developments.
It's like a job posting that closes on Friday; even if a perfect candidate applies on Monday, the previous week's decision stands because the deadline passed.