A single event in September 2025 driving a year-long user tripling on Polymarket just doesn't hit the upper bound of explanatory power. We need to see an asymmetry in the data, a dramatic surge in daily active users directly correlating with that specific military action, not just a contribution to an ongoing trend. Without that peak correlation, it’s like crediting a single rain shower for an entire season's crop yield, ignoring months of consistent irrigation and sunlight. For true impact, the market data must scream its influence, demonstrating an undeniable spike.