A mere $21 million increase in sports longshot betting is unlikely to be the sole driver for a nearly four-fold increase in Polymarket's winning volume. That 20% growth in sports wagers would need an exceptional conversion ratio, something like 15x or more efficient, to directly cause a 300% jump in a distinct market. If the overlap of bettors between these two markets is less than, say, 75 percent, then the connection is practically negligible, perhaps a 0.01 impact ratio. The mechanism is only decisive if we can quantify a direct transfer of this specific betting capital, otherwise it's just a loose correlation with low statistical significance.