It may be worth considering if the prediction markets for June 19th and 20th truly resolved with a 'No outcome' because of the later military action on the 21st, or rather, if the absence of any such action on those specific earlier days was the direct cause. It feels a bit like saying a new company policy implemented today somehow changes whether last week's overtime claims were valid; the past is generally based on what happened then. Perhaps the market's resolution for those specific dates was simply a reflection of no events occurring within that window, which seems to gently separate it from later developments. For instance, if a specific workplace agreement covers working conditions for a certain week, what happens the week after doesn't usually alter whether the previous week's conditions were met.