Longshot bets are defined as purchasing positions priced at or below 0.35 with trade sizes of at least $2,500.
The win rate measures the proportion of these wagers that successfully resolve to winning outcomes.
Among political prediction markets, Military and Defense topics have the highest longshot win rate at 51.8%.
Conversely, Central Bank Decisions and Politician Attendance show the lowest longshot win rates, below ten percent.
Examples
- Military and Defense topics have a 51.8% longshot win rate.
- Politician Speech and Election topics show win rates around 23%.
- Central Bank Decisions have a 9.1% longshot win rate.
- Politician Attendance has the lowest longshot win rate at 8.3%.
A 51.8% win rate for longshot bets on Military and Defense topics seems high, but I'd be looking at the conditions that could cause a complete drawdown if things shift.
If an unexpected global event like a major conflict occurs, the downside for those bets could be absolute, making any previous win rate irrelevant.
It's like thinking your pension pot is safe because the market was up last year; one big crash can wipe out decades of careful planning, leaving you with little to exit with.