Longshot bets in military and defense markets show an unusually high success rate.
Over half of these longshot bets resulted in winning outcomes, defying typical probability.
This suggests that some bettors have access to non-public information.
Such information asymmetry could lead to market manipulation.
This contrasts with the general growth in sports longshot betting volume.
Examples
- Military and defense longshot bets win 51.8% of the time.
- Expected win rate for longshot bets is typically 35% or less.
- This indicates an information advantage for some participants.
- The total wagered on these winning outcomes was $9.3 million.
- This outlier behavior is not seen in other political topics.
The human desire to see an underdog win, whether in sports or in bigger, graver scenarios, often drives those long-shot bets, not necessarily some grand secret. I see it when my students try to guess which team will win the local navétane football match, picking the team everyone else dismisses because they want to see a surprise victory. It's the story of the unexpected hero, the big payoff against all odds, that holds the real sway, rather than some hidden intel no one else possesses. This narrative of hope and chance, a real beat in our lives, often feels more compelling than dry data about information asymmetry.