There's a prior probability of around 90% that the June 21st military strikes had no direct causal link to the Polymarket's 'No outcome' resolution for June 19-20. Prediction markets typically resolve based on whether the specified event occurred within the defined timeframe, with a very low likelihood (p < 0.05) of post-event actions changing a prior outcome. The likelihood of an event on Saturday influencing a 'No' resolution for Thursday and Friday is near zero, as markets operate on temporal boundaries. For example, a sports bet placed on a Friday game resolving 'No' is not retroactively changed by a team trade announced the following Monday; the conditions for resolution were met (or not) at game time.