It's a risky assumption that military and defense topics will always offer the best return for these longshot bets, even if the win rate is currently high; that kind of hierarchy is often temporary. What looks like a pattern today, like that 51.8% success, could shift quite quickly with changes in global affairs. If there's a major international treaty or a lasting peace, those 'military' bets might see a big drawdown. You've got to consider the condition that would stop that trend, not just the trend itself, or you might find your £2,500 gone.