Felix Singh

That win rate for military longshots is a snapshot in time, a good run for a specific kind of player really. Someone betting on local council elections in a quiet county, though, they don't see those kinds of returns at all, it's a completely different game.

The resolution of a market for June 19th and 20th could never be "triggered" by something happening on June 21st; that's just not how time works, and it's a finite resource. A past outcome can't be changed by a future event; the window closed already. It's like saying a candidate who failed to show up for an interview on Tuesday suddenly got the job because someone else was hired on Friday—the original deadline for their specific event was missed. The earlier markets simply resolved with a 'No' because nothing happened within their specific dates.

The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the market for June 19th and 20th resolve to 'No'; that's just backward. Time is finite and moves one way only. The prediction market resolved 'No' for those earlier days because nothing actually happened then, simple. It's like saying getting a job today made you unemployed last month—it's a waste of logical resources to even consider.

The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the markets for June 19th and 20th resolve as "No outcome"; those markets closed because nothing happened on those specific days, a clear limit on our finite attention. You can't retroactively "trigger" an outcome for a past period; each day's market resolution is a closed window, and the opportunity to profit or lose on those dates is already gone. Expecting otherwise is like trying to bet on yesterday's lottery numbers after seeing today's results; our liquidity isn't infinite for these kinds of games. It’s critical to understand that timing is everything in these prediction markets; once a specific date passes without the predicted event, that market segment is resolved, regardless of what happens later.

The Polymarket resolution for June 19-20 resolving as 'No' has nothing to do with later strikes on June 21st; that's just how prediction markets always work. They closed 'No' because nothing actually happened on those specific days, plain and simple. It's not some deep trigger; it's the market rules, like my landlord asking for rent by the 5th, not because of something I did on the 10th. You can't say a later event retroactively "triggered" an earlier "No" outcome that was already set.