The Mistral AI valuation as a necessary input for the Solsice debate feels like an overestimation of its predictive power; it's a data point, but its likelihood of dictating the AI Act's viability is quite low, probably p < 0.1.
Investor risk perception, though important, represents just one prior in a complex system of regulatory evaluation, not a definitive legal verdict.
Its success is conditional on many factors, like their specific technology and team, not just the EU regulatory environment.
For example, if Mistral AI secured major grants or targeted non-EU markets primarily, their valuation would have a much lower probability of directly informing the AI Act's overall viability.