A 21 billion euro valuation for Mistral AI, while impressive, probably isn't the decisive factor informing a debate on the AI Act's regulatory viability; my prior estimate gives it a 0.3 likelihood of being the primary driver.
My posterior probability updates that the debate's conclusion is likely driven by specific legal arguments, with about a 65% chance, rather than just one company's financial success.
For instance, if Mistral's capital goes mostly to compute and talent, not compliance, then their success is less about the Act's perfect design for all companies.
We should expect the Solsice debate to focus on the actual legal text and its broader implications, not just a single high-flyer.