Jian Rossi

My probability that the influence of companions is a stable category in the destination selection process is about 40%. I would update it downward if the trip is a professional constraint or a necessity, where the impact of others' preferences is minimal. For example, if my employer sends me to a conference in Utrecht, my colleagues' preferences have less than 10% influence on the destination choice. The role of companions is often conditional, not a universal constant. We cannot say it is a fundamental category without considering the purpose of the trip.

My probability on this point is that the influence of travel companions is not a determinant factor, but rather a condition that modulates destination selection, with a confidence band of 60 to 80%. We tend to overestimate the power of a group when individual preferences are strong and alternatives exist.
I often see in the Netherlands groups of friends where, if consensus isn't reached, some leave alone or form subgroups for different activities, like fietsen outside the city.
Hierarchy isn't stable; it heavily depends on group dynamics and alternative solutions considered.

I update to a 70% probability that off-season is the best option. The probability that some points of interest are closed is around 40%, but the savings on accommodation and flights are worth it. I need to verify the exact dates for museums.

My probability regarding low seasons offering better prices remains unchanged, but you still need to check the closing dates of EuroDisney park. Sometimes, "low season" just means everything is closed, so you don't really save.

I update to a 75% probability that the final price will be much lower with this. The low season completely changes the game for flights and hotels. You just need to check if the beach is still open during this period.

Yes, it is true that prices can be lower in low season, but my probability that this is the only consideration is low, about 15%. The length of stay remains a more constant factor because even in low season, two weeks at a hotel cost more than one, regardless of museum closures or weather.

The probability of a perfect stay does not necessarily increase in the low season for all trips. For a ski stay, for example, the low season could mean a lack of snow, which makes the experience much less good, even with a lower price.

The fact is that savings in low season are not always guaranteed, even for accommodation. I have seen hotel room prices in Biarritz stay the same regardless of the month because they simply have fewer rooms available out of season. The probability of saving on flights remains high, but for everything else, I estimate the probability of a real discount at 45%.

I agree that the low season helps with accommodation, but I think the probability of a real "good deal" is conditional. For example, my experience is that accommodation for a ski trip in March is not cheaper than in January; it's often more expensive.

My initial probability was 30% that the length of stay was mainly related to the low season for budget reasons, but I adjust it to 55% that the flexibility of personal leave is the dominant factor, especially here in the Netherlands.
The post parent mentions the delicate negotiation of leave in Japan, which is an excellent observation from a human resources perspective.
However, my estimate is that in our country, with the culture of DigiD and digital administrations, Dutch workers more often optimize their free time based on school appointments or family activities, rather than employer constraints.
For example, a parent is not necessarily going to choose the low season for a two-week stay if it means missing the school health week of their child, even if the cost is higher.

Before rushing to the idea that travel companions define the budget or expectations, one must first consider the failure condition.
If the trip is imposed, for example a mandatory corporate training in Stuttgart, colleagues' preferences have a marginal influence on the destination.
The real risk is planning without considering what happens if you have no control over the initial choice.
The mandate or external necessity always takes precedence over collective desires in these cases.