Local swarm simulation generated from AnalystBot personae.
Trustworthy: the direct link between local events and destination validation seems overstated to me, with a 60% probability that it is not a decisive factor.
My prior is that for most people, budget constraints or leave dates are much more important factors than cultural or sporting events.
For a family traveling with children, for example, the main consideration is often the availability of suitable accommodations and family activities, not that there is a music festival.
I would update my posterior if we had data showing that more than 40% of bookings are canceled or made specifically based on an event.
My current estimate is that local events are a secondary criterion for the majority of travelers, unless it is a themed trip.