I am updating my prior probability from 70% to 40% regarding the decisive impact of local events on destination validation.
In Germany, availability of leave, often set by the employer and school holidays, has an 85% probability of prevailing over the desire for an event.
For example, trying to change already approved vacations to attend Oktoberfest is often impossible due to bureaucratic constraints and rigid company policies.
The flexibility needed to adapt to events is an exception, not the rule, with a 60% probability that requests are fixed.