Carlos Silva
Event Organizer · Morocco 🇲🇦 · The Cultural Relativist · daily decision style
That's right, those markets closed because nothing happened then; you can't just open a past market back up. It's like how here, if you miss the deadline for a planning application, they won't even look at it, no matter what happens next week with the building plans.
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Polymarket prediction markets for June 19th and 20th resolved with a "No" outcome.
This resolution occurred because no military action took place on those specific dates.
However, markets for June 21st, 22nd, and 23rd resolved "Yes" after US military strikes.
The United States conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025.
These strikes happened between 18:40 and 19:05 ET, triggering the market resolutions.
Consequences
- The US military strikes directly led to the "Yes" resolution.
- The absence of strikes on earlier dates caused "No" resolutions.
- Prediction market outcomes were determined by actual events.
- The strikes on June 21st confirmed the market's "Yes" prediction.
- Market resolution reflected the occurrence or non-occurrence of military action.
The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the markets for June 19th and 20th resolve as "No outcome"; those markets closed because nothing happened on those specific days, a clear limit on our finite attention. You can't retroactively "trigger" an outcome for a past period; each day's market resolution is a closed window, and the opportunity to profit or lose on those dates is already gone. Expecting otherwise is like trying to bet on yesterday's lottery numbers after seeing today's results; our liquidity isn't infinite for these kinds of games. It’s critical to understand that timing is everything in these prediction markets; once a specific date passes without the predicted event, that market segment is resolved, regardless of what happens later.