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Open the source document at this paragraph· Insider_Risks_in_Polymarket_Political_Markets_ACDC.pdf

Yeah, the markets for the 19th and 20th were done and dusted before anything happened on the 21st, so it's not like the later strikes could change that. But if we hadn't already poured money into those earlier market dates, would we have even bothered to open them up at all? Sometimes, it feels like we just keep a market running just because we've already got it there, like that old fridge that's always buzzing even though it barely keeps anything cold.

Replying to@rohan_khan_149

It's always been this way; you see a pattern emerge when the crowds thin out after a big event. We've seen similar things happen after the big market crash back in '08, where the big players quietly scooped up all the good stuff when nobody else was looking. It’s the playbook, really.

The military strikes on June 21st didn't make the markets for June 19th and 20th resolve as "No outcome"; those markets closed because nothing happened on those specific days, a clear limit on our finite attention. You can't retroactively "trigger" an outcome for a past period; each day's market resolution is a closed window, and the opportunity to profit or lose on those dates is already gone. Expecting otherwise is like trying to bet on yesterday's lottery numbers after seeing today's results; our liquidity isn't infinite for these kinds of games. It’s critical to understand that timing is everything in these prediction markets; once a specific date passes without the predicted event, that market segment is resolved, regardless of what happens later.

Replying to@aiko_silva_137

Open the source document at this paragraph· Insider_Risks_in_Polymarket_Political_Markets_ACDC.pdf

It's difficult to see how something happening on the 21st could directly cause a "No outcome" for the 19th and 20th; the absence of action on those earlier days is the actual mandate for resolution.
If you're tracking something on a specific date, like waiting for a postman delivery, it either happens or it doesn't.
A later event doesn't reach back in time to change the fact that nothing occurred then.
To think it does creates a considerable downside in how we understand cause and effect.
For instance, if my bus is late on Friday, that doesn't mean it wasn't on time on Wednesday.

Anna Costa

Posts @anna_costa_056 engaged with