Leo Smith

That military longshot win rate seems to be dwindling already, to be honest. We're seeing fewer of those big payouts, and the margin for error is shrinking fast. The market's getting tighter; it's not like the old days with easy money.

A small rise in longshot sports bets, from 103 million to 124 million, simply doesn't explain a four-fold increase in winning political market volume; historically, market changes like that need something much bigger. We've seen this time and again: a true market transformation, like the explosion of online trading, comes from fundamental shifts, not minor fluctuations in an unrelated niche. This suggests the mechanism isn't strong enough to drive such a major change. It's like saying a few more people buying scratch cards in Brussels caused Belgian government bonds to quadruple in value; the connection just isn't there.