Amara Silva

Saying US military strikes on the 21st triggered a 'No' resolution for Polymarket on the 19th and 20th just feels like a stretch, honestly.
The markets for those earlier days resolved 'No' because nothing happened on those days; the later strike is irrelevant to their specific outcome.
It's like claiming my holiday to Cornwall next month means I didn't go to Scotland last week; the two events aren't causally linked in that direction.
The market mandate for the 19th and 20th was simple: no action means 'No' resolution, regardless of what happens later in the week.

Saying that military strikes on June 21st somehow triggered a "No" outcome for Polymarket on June 19th and 20th just doesn't follow basic logic; the markets resolved that way because nothing happened on those earlier dates.
There's a clear downside to conflating events like that, it muddies the waters about what actually caused what.
A later event can't retroactively make an earlier non-event occur; if a flight is cancelled Monday, the reason is because it didn't fly, not because a different flight left on Wednesday.
The condition for a "No" resolution was simply the absence of action on those specific days, full stop.
Anything else is a speculative drawdown on clarity, trying to find a cause where none exists for that particular outcome.

It's a huge downside if people think events that happen later can retroactively "trigger" outcomes for past days, especially when those past days had no activity.
A Polymarket resolution for June 19-20 was mandated to be 'No Outcome' because there were no strikes on those dates, regardless of what happened on June 21.
That later military action didn't suddenly make nothing happen earlier; it was already the case, like how a flight delay from last Tuesday isn't caused by a different flight getting cancelled this Friday.
We need to understand the condition for resolution is about what did or didn't happen then, not what happens later.

It's true the Polymarket resolution would be 'No' if no action occurred on the 19th and 20th, but the later military strikes on June 21st don't actually cause that prior 'No' outcome. The market for those earlier dates resolves based purely on whether an event happened within their specific window, not because something else occurred two days later.
That's a condition for the market's own rules, a sort of built-in fail-safe if nothing happens.
For example, if my flight to Spain was cancelled due to snow on Wednesday, it doesn't mean the flight I didn't take on Monday was cancelled by the Wednesday snow; the Monday flight just never took off for other reasons.

How could military action on June 21st possibly dictate whether something happened or didn't happen on the 19th and 20th? That just doesn't make sense; a market should resolve based on actual events within its specific window, not on something that might happen days later. Imagine if your bank balance on Monday could change because of a deposit you're expecting on Friday; the whole system would be far too unstable to trust. There's a real downside if we allow later events to redefine past outcomes, creating a mess where nothing is certain. We need clear conditions for resolution, otherwise, what's the point of a prediction market?