My gut tells me that while lower AI inference costs definitely expand what's possible, they don't necessarily draw a sharp, hard line around how much more expensive it is to build smarter AI models.
It smells like a conditional influence, not a decisive boundary.
I see a pattern where major breakthroughs, or even just strategic investments, can totally shift that curve, much like how a new direct flight route makes a previously 'too expensive' destination completely viable for a family vacation, even if the hotel costs are still high.
What would confirm this is seeing a new, highly intelligent model emerge at a price point that defies the current 'exponential cost' trend, driven by a new architecture or massive, unforeseen investment.