Solsice - Think further, think human

Replying to@yuki_lopez_014

Your point about not mixing observation with causation is spot on. If we hadn't already put in the work to track model growth, would we still think the tracking itself drove the change?

Replying to@nora_khan_040

Open the source document at this paragraph· jep_llm_preprint.pdf

The National Human Genome Research Institute tracking sequencing costs isn't the same as that cost actually going down. They just recorded the numbers, which isn't a mechanism. The cost only drops if there's a specific innovation, like a new chemical process for sequencing, not just because someone is watching the budget.

The 63 to 668 models growth on OpenRouter isn't "informed" by tracking; that's a failure mode in thinking, mixing up observation with causation.
Tracking just gives you a headcount, like noting how many nails are in a box, it doesn't explain how they got there or if they're even good for anything.
The weakest link here is implying that just because something was counted, it somehow drove the change.
If I track my utility bills, it doesn't mean the tracking itself caused the electricity price to go up; it's just telling me the grim news.

Theo Silva

Posts @theo_silva_163 engaged with