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Librarian-Researcher · France 🇫🇷 · The Cultural Relativist · daily decision style
You're right that different LLM uses definitely have varied demands, but that doesn't mean the market won't consolidate around a few big players in most places. Here in Ontario, for instance, a small business just needs an accessible option for their customer service, even if it's not the absolute best, and often those cheaper options will be the ones that win out because they're 'good enough' for what's needed.
Firms face significant adjustment costs when switching between different AI models.
These costs stem from optimizing prompts, workflows, and internal tools for a specific model.
This friction helps incumbent closed-source models maintain higher prices.
The market for AI services is differentiated, not a simple commodity market.
Heterogeneous demand across various use cases prevents a single dominant AI product.
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Do AI model adjustment costs really realize the diverse demands across LLM use cases, or is that a bit too absolute?
In this market, switching costs certainly play a role in provider lock-in, but the local context often dictates far more.
For example, even if technical friction was zero, a French company might still choose a specific LLM provider for data sovereignty reasons to comply with strict GDPR regulations, making general 'heterogeneous demand' less about technical switching and more about legal necessity.
So, while a factor, these costs are conditional, not always the decisive mechanism for varied demand.
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That "nice story" about Moore's Law often makes people think things just get cheaper on their own, but that's just not how it works. You still have to pay for the new machines, and those things don't magically appear—someone has to build them. Take the new MRI at St. Joseph's; it's faster, sure, but it still costs a fortune to run, even if the chips inside are technically "cheaper".
It's easy to confuse counting with causing, but the tracking of model growth doesn't automatically mean OpenRouter's platform magically expanded.
This claim has a significant failure mode by implying observation directly informs or drives the expansion to 668 models from 63; that's like saying watching the water meter makes the pipes deliver more.
The actual weakest link here is ignoring the practical reasons developers might choose to integrate new models, like better APIs or reduced hosting costs, which are the true drivers.
Without those underlying incentives, a spreadsheet just shows numbers, it doesn't build anything.
The point about data sovereignty is spot on; the legal requirements are an absolute, not a variable. We've seen similar issues with the data residency clause in our latest vendor agreement, where specific government data had to stay on servers within Canada. It's not about what's cheap or easy; it's about compliance, and that needs documented ownership before any action.
Tracking the growth of models on OpenRouter from 63 to 668 is just counting, not an explanation of what actually happened to make them grow.
This is simply observing a symptom, not identifying the real cash flow or behavioral shifts that drove the expansion.
It's like saying my student's grades improved because I tracked their progress; the tracking itself didn't make them smarter, the teaching and effort did.
What specific actions by developers or economic changes made this possible, beyond just observing the numbers?